Economic Mobility in the Kyrgyz Republic
9 December 2015, 14:00
Ms Anita Guelfi, Consultant, The World Bank
The report focuses on the degree and main characteristics of economic mobility in the Kyrgyz Republic. Mobility analysis can help to unveil what happened below the surface of poverty stagnation of 2009, thereby enabling to understand whether the reduced pace in poverty eradication was associated with mobility in and out of the poverty status and to obtain a profile of the corresponding groups. The dataset of “true’ longitudinal data at the individual level, the “Life in Kyrgyzstan Survey” by the Deutsches Institut fue Wirtschaftsforschung in the period 2010-2012, is used for analyses. The results highlight a relatively high economic mobility between the bottom 40% and top 60% of the Kyrgyz population: about 40% of those belonging to the bottom 40% in 2010 managed to enter the upper deciles in the following years, whereas 19% of those who were in the top 60% in 2010 fell down into the bottom 40% in 2011. A multivariate analysis on the drivers of economic mobility further reveals that the probability for a household to move out of poverty is strongly linked with household’s demographic characteristics; receiving remittances is also found to significantly enhance a household’s chance to leave the poverty pool. Chronic poor households are more often found in urban areas and tend to depend more on wage incomes. As for their labor market status, chronic poors appear to have a significantly higher probability of being non-employed (i.e. either unemployed or inactive).
Anita Guelfi, is a consultant in applied economics at the World Bank Group, the Poverty Global Practice. Since April 2015 she's also working as a consultant for the Understanding Children's Work (UCW) program and is the co-founder and global coordinator of the recently established Italian Center for International Development (ICID) at the faculty of Economics of the University of Rome "Tor Vergata". Dr Guelfi obtained a Ph.D in History and Theory of Economic Development from the University of Rome, LUISS "Guido Carli".
Both presentations will be in English. Russian translation provided upon prior request.
2nd Floor Conference Room, University of Central Asia, 138 Toktogul Street, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic.
* The views presented in this lecture are those of the presenter and not necessarily those of the University of Central Asia or any of its staff