Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia: Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Central Asia in 2010-2011
Speaker: Roman Mogilevskii
Date: 8 November 2012, 4 pm
Venue: University of Central Asia, 138 Toktogul Street, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic. Conference Room.
The formation of the Customs Union (CU) of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russian Federation is probably the most important trade policy change in Central Asia in recent years. Initial analysis indicates that trade in goods between CU countries and other Central Asian countries has grown significantly during the two years of the CU operations. This major trade expansion may be due to the new environment created by the CU. However, it may be also due to other reasons: general economic recovery after the 2008-2009 crisis, growth of international commodity prices, and different exogenous shocks. It is also important to understand whether the CU-attributable increase in trade is due to the emergence of new trade flows caused by the liberalisation of trade within the CU (trade creation), or due to redirection of existing trade flows from countries outside the CU towards CU members (trade diversion). Based on research conducted within the framework of UCA’s Institute of Public Policy and Administration’s Regional Cooperation and Confidence Building project, this presentation seeks to assess the impact of the CU on trade performance in Central Asia and any evidence of CU-related trade creation and trade diversion.
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Dr. Roman Mogilevskii coordinates activities of the UCA’s Institute of Public Policy and Administration. He has extensive experience researching trade policy, public finance and macroeconomics in Central Asia and Eastern Europe; has participated in the implementation of research, advisory and training programs across the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS); and has published numerous papers on issues of regional cooperation and economic policy.
The presentation will be conducted in English. Russian translation provided upon prior request.