Business Cycles in Central Asia

Date: 26 November 2012
Location: UCA Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic
Other languages: Русский язык |

Speaker: Nurbek Jenish
Date: 26 November 2012, 4 pm
Venue: University of Central Asia, 138 Toktogul Street, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic. Meeting Room, Third Floor.

Abstract
This presentation examines the features of business cycles (BC) in Central Asian countries: Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. The presentation attempts to (i) analyze the relationship between the movements in macroeconomic variables and the aggregate cycle for each country; (ii) examine the extent of synchronization of BCs across countries and BC dependence on other external developments. The findings of the paper are: a) there is a mixed picture on the correlation properties of macroeconomic variables with the BCs in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan; b) there is no synchronization of BC in Kyrgyzstan with that of either Russia or Kazakhstan; c) there is no synchronization of Tajik business cycles with either Russian or Kazakh business cycle; d) Russian and Kazakh business cycles are synchronized; e) for Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, the business cycles movements are positively correlated with the price changes of their main export commodities – gold and oil, respectively.

Registration
Please RSVP to vladilena.vladimirova@ucentralasia.org with your name and affiliation. Please indicate if you require Russian translation.

Biography
Dr. Nurbek Jenish is a Lead Researcher of IPPA UCA for Kyrgyzstan and an Associate Professor at AUCA. He has extensive experience researching and modelling monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Central Asia and Central and Eastern European countries.

Language
The presentation will be conducted in English. Russian translation provided upon prior request.