IPPA Public Lecture, Bishkek: Predicting Poverty in Kyrgyzstan: A Hierarchical Approach

Date: 12 February 2019
Other languages: Русский язык |
February 12th 2019, 4.00 - 6.00 pm
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
 
Ms. Maria Grazia Pittau 
Professor of Economic Statistics at the Department of Statistical Sciences
Sapienza University of Rome, Italy

Mr. Roberto Zelli
Professor of Economic Statistics
Sapienza University of Rome

Ms. Saida Ismailakhunova
Economist in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice
The World Bank

Abstract
The Kyrgyz Republic is committed to achieving the sustainable development goals, including the goal of poverty alleviation. In this work, the presenters try to identify which are the individual characteristics and the macro-economic variables, such as GDP per capita and the unemployment rate at a regional level, that contribute the most in predicting the probability of being poor in Kyrgyzstan. A large body of the literature has investigated the main factors that influence the households at-risk of poverty. The central premise is that, the ability of a household to exploit available income-earning opportunities is shaped by its inherent characteristics. For a given household, the probability of being poor is determined by the extent and nature of its participation in the labor market, participation conditioned by the characteristics of the household itself.

Generally, studies on poverty indicate that the potential explanatory variables of poverty can concern the economic, demographic and human capital attributes of the household, but not variables that define the environment where the households live. Here, using a multi-level analysis, we test the effects of macro-economic aggregates on individual’s odds of poverty.

Specifically, the presenters will assess if some regional macro-variables, such as per capita Gross Regional Product (GRP) and unemployment rate, have an effect after controlling for salient household-level predictors of poverty. Upon controlling for household-level determinants of poverty, it would valuable to compare how large the effects of regional aggregates are relative to such micro-level characteristics.

Biographies
Ms. Maria Grazia Pittau is a Professor of Economic Statistics at the Department of Statistical Sciences at Sapienza University of Rome in Italy. From 2005-2007, she was a Research Fellow at the Department of Statistics at Columbia University in New York. Previously, she was a Research Fellow at the Italian National Statistical Office, Visiting Researcher at CEPS/INSTEAD (Center for Population, Poverty and Public Policy Studies) in Luxembourg, and at the Institute for Economic Analysis (IAE) in Barcelona, Spain. She received her Ph.D. in Quantitative methods in social sciences and her B.A. in Statistics from the University of Rome. Her research interests centre on the analysis of inequality, poverty, income mobility and polarisation, mainly through the application of data mining, statistics, and modelling. She has explored the presence and implications of convergence clubs in the field of economic growth. She has also worked on establishing mechanisms to track sources of missing data in large surveys. She has made several contributions to life satisfaction measurement and to the analysis of individual preferences for redistribution through hierarchical models. She is Associate Editor of the Journal of Economic Inequality.

Mr. Roberto Zelli is a Professor of Economic Statistics at Sapienza University of Rome, where he has worked since 1997. He holds a B.A. in Statistics and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Rome, and a M.Sc. in Quantitative Development Economics from the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom. His research interests centre on the analysis of inequality, poverty, income mobility and polarisation, mainly through the application of data mining, statistics, and modelling. He has made several contributions to growth econometrics and well-being measurement and to the analysis of preferences for redistribution. His research output has been published in academic journals of economics, applied statistics and econometrics. He is Associate Editor of the Review of Income and Wealth and Metron. He served as expert of the Advisory Committee on Statistics at Presidency of the Council of Ministers of Italy and he is a World Bank Consultant.

Ms. Saida Ismailakhunova is an Economist in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice at the World Bank. Ms. Ismailakhunova works for the Central Asia Poverty team on poverty and equity issues, strengthening national statistical system and social protection. Prior to joining the World Bank, Ms. Ismailakhunova worked for seven years as the Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting division in the Ministry of Finance of the Kyrgyz Republic. She holds a PhD of the Russian Federation in Economics and a Master Degree in Public Policy (Tokyo, Japan). 

Location
University of Central Asia
2nd Floor Seminar Room
138 Toktogul Street
Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

Language
The presentation will be in English. Russian translation will be provided.

Registration
We would highly appreciate if you kindly confirm your participation to Ms. Zhypara Azhykanova by February 11th 2019 by phone: +996 (0) 312 62 52 53 or by email: zazhykanova@worldbank.org.

* Ideas presented in this lecture reflect the personal opinion of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of the University of Central Asia and/or its employees.
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