Drought Adaptation and Climate Resilience in Kyrgyzstan’s Agricultural Sector: Integrating Biophysical Data, Remote Sensing, and Local Ecological Knowledge for the National Adaptation Plan

This policy brief presents a comprehensive scientific and applied analysis of mechanisms for adapting agriculture in the Kyrgyz Republic to the increasing frequency and intensity of hydrometeorological droughts. Based on empirical research in the Batken region—integrating over 38 years of meteorological observations (1981–2019), satellite monitoring (MODIS), and micro-sociological analysis (98 community consultations and 39 expert interviews)—the study reveals critical climate trends: accelerated warming in March (up to +1.2°C per decade), a fivefold increase in drought frequency over the last 20 years, and shifts in traditional phenological seasons (Köktöm, Jayky Saratan, and Kyshky Childe). It demonstrates the differentiation of climate risks across altitudinal zones and analyzes the phenomenon of Jut (fodder shortage) as a destabilizing factor for livestock farming. The study identifies effective local adaptation practices (including "winter irrigation") as well as risks of maladaptation associated with early grazing.

This research was conducted within the framework of the Kyrgyz Republic’s Mountain Agenda and aims to provide an evidence base for the National Adaptation Plan regarding agriculture and natural resource management amidst climate change in mountainous regions.